Geoscientific Model Development Discussions
www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net
1991-9611
1991-962X
3
3
2010
10.5194/gmdd-3-1185-2010
http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/3/1185/2010/
http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/3/1185/2010/gmdd-3-1185-2010.html
http://www.geosci-model-dev-discuss.net/3/1185/2010/gmdd-3-1185-2010.pdf
1185
1221
2010-08-13
Meteorological and trace gas factors affecting the number concentration of atmospheric Aitken (<i>D</i><sub>p</sub>=50 nm) particles in the continental boundary layer: parameterization using a multivariate mixed effects model
S. Mikkonen
santtu.mikkonen@uef.fi
H. Korhonen
S. Romakkaniemi
J. N. Smith
J. Joutsensaari
K. E. J. Lehtinen
A. Hamed
T. J. Breider
W. Birmili
G. Spindler
C. Plass-Duelmer
M. C. Facchini
A. Laaksonen
Department of Physics and Mathematics, University of Eastern Finland, P.O. Box 1627, 70211 Kuopio, Finland
Finnish Meteorological Institute, Kuopio unit, P.O. Box 1627, 70211 Kuopio, Finland
Atmospheric Chemistry Division, National Center for Atmospheric Research, P.O. Box 3000, Boulder, CO 80307, USA
School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, LS2 9JT Leeds, UK
Leibniz Institute for Tropospheric Research, Permoserstrasse 15, 04318 Leipzig, Germany
Hohenpeissenberg Meteorological Observatory, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany
Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate, ISAC – CNR, Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche, Bologna, Italy
Finnish Meteorological Institute, P.O. Box 503, 00101 Helsinki, Finland
Measurements of aerosol size-distribution and different gas and
meteorological parameters, made in three polluted sites in Central- and
Southern Europe: Po Valley, Italy, Melpitz and Hohenpeissenberg in Germany,
were analysed for this study to examine which of the meteorological and trace
gas variables affect the number concentration of Aitken (<i>D</i><sub>p</sub>=50 nm)
particles. The aim of our study was to predict the number concentration of
50 nm particles by a combination of in-situ meteorological and gas phase
parameters. The statistical model needs to describe, amongst others, the
factors affecting the growth of newly formed aerosol particles (below 10 nm)
to 50 nm size, but also sources of direct particle emissions in that size
range. As the analysis method we used multivariate nonlinear mixed effects
model. Hourly averages of gas and meteorological parameters measured at the
stations were used as predictor variables; the best predictive model was
attained with a combination of relative humidity, new particle formation
event probability, temperature, condensation sink and concentrations of
SO<sub>2</sub>, NO<sub>2</sub> and ozone. The seasonal variation was also taken into account
in the mixed model structure. Model simulations with the Global Model of
Aerosol Processes (GLOMAP) indicate that the parameterization can be used as
a part of a larger atmospheric model to predict the concentration of
climatically active particles. As an additional benefit, the introduced model
framework is, in theory, applicable for any kind of measured aerosol
parameter.
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