Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b)
Katja Frieler1, Richard Betts2, Eleanor Burke2, Philippe Ciais3, Sebastien Denvil4, Delphine Deryng5, Kristie Ebi6, Tyler Eddy7,8, Kerry Emanuel9, Joshua Elliott5,10, Eric Galbraith11, Simon N. Gosling12, Kate Halladay2, Fred Hattermann1, Thomas Hickler13, Jochen Hinkel14,15, Veronika Huber1, Chris Jones2, Valentina Krysanova1, Stefan Lange1, Heike K. Lotze7, Hermann Lotze-Campen1,16, Matthias Mengel1, Ioanna Mouratiadou1,17, Hannes Müller Schmied13,18, Sebastian Ostberg1,23, Franziska Piontek1, Alexander Popp1, Christopher P. O. Reyer1, Jacob Schewe1, Miodrag Stevanovic1, Tatsuo Suzuki19, Kirsten Thonicke1, Hanqin Tian20, Derek P. Tittensor7,21, Robert Vautard3, Michelle van Vliet22, Lila Warszawski1, and Fang Zhao11Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam, 14473, Germany 2Met Office, Exeter, UK 3Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environment, Gif sur Yvette, France 4Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace, Paris, France 5NASA GISS/CCSR Earth Institute, Columbia University, New York, NY, USA 6University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA 7Department of Biology, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada 8Institute for Oceans and Fisheries, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada 9Program for Atmospheres, Oceans and Climate, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 10Computation Institute, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA 11Catalan Institution for Research and Advanced Studies, Barcelona, Spain 12School of Geography, University of Nottingham, UK 13Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (BiK-F), Frankfurt, Germany 14Global Climate Forum, 10178 Berlin, Germany 15Division of Resource Economics, Albrecht Daniel Thaer-Institute and Berlin Workshop in Institutional Analysis of Social-Ecological Systems (WINS), Humboldt-University, Berlin, Germany 16Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany 17Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, The Netherlands 18Institute of Physical Geography, Goethe-University Frankfurt, Germany 19Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Department of Integrated Climate Change Projection Research, Yokohama, Japan 20International Center for Climate and Global Change Research, School of Forestry and Wildlife Sciences, Auburn University, Auburn, AL, USA 21United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre, Cambrigde, UK 22Water Systems and Global Change group, Wageningen University, Wageningen, The Netherlands 23Geography Department, Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Berlin, Germany
Received: 25 Aug 2016 – Accepted for review: 14 Oct 2016 – Discussion started: 20 Oct 2016
Abstract. In Paris, France, December 2015, the Conference of the Parties (COP) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) invited the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to provide a "special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways". In Nairobi, Kenya, April 2016, the IPCC panel accepted the invitation. Here we describe the response devised within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) to provide tailored, cross-sectorally consistent impacts projections. The simulation protocol is designed to allow for (1) separation of the impacts of historical warming starting from pre-industrial conditions from other human drivers such as historical land-use changes (based on pre-industrial and historical impact model simulations); (2) quantification of the effects of additional warming up to 1.5 °C, including a potential overshoot and long-term effects up to 2299, compared to a no-mitigation scenario (based on the low-emissions Representative Concentration Pathway RCP2.6 and a no-mitigation pathway RCP6.0) with socio-economic conditions fixed at 2005 levels; and (3) assessment of the climate effects based on the same climate scenarios but accounting for simultaneous changes in socio-economic conditions following the middle-of-the-road Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2, Fricko et al., 2016) and differential bio-energy requirements associated with the transformation of the energy system to comply with RCP2.6 compared to RCP6.0. With the aim of providing the scientific basis for an aggregation of impacts across sectors and analysis of cross-sectoral interactions that may dampen or amplify sectoral impacts, the protocol is designed to facilitate consistent impacts projections from a range of impact models across different sectors (global and regional hydrology, global crops, global vegetation, regional forests, global and regional marine ecosystems and fisheries, global and regional coastal infrastructure, energy supply and demand, health, and tropical cyclones).
Frieler, K., Betts, R., Burke, E., Ciais, P., Denvil, S., Deryng, D., Ebi, K., Eddy, T., Emanuel, K., Elliott, J., Galbraith, E., Gosling, S. N., Halladay, K., Hattermann, F., Hickler, T., Hinkel, J., Huber, V., Jones, C., Krysanova, V., Lange, S., Lotze, H. K., Lotze-Campen, H., Mengel, M., Mouratiadou, I., Müller Schmied, H., Ostberg, S., Piontek, F., Popp, A., Reyer, C. P. O., Schewe, J., Stevanovic, M., Suzuki, T., Thonicke, K., Tian, H., Tittensor, D. P., Vautard, R., van Vliet, M., Warszawski, L., and Zhao, F.: Assessing the impacts of 1.5 °C global warming – simulation protocol of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP2b), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-229, in review, 2016.