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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model description paper
17 May 2016
Review status
This discussion paper has been under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). The revised manuscript was not accepted.
AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections
Pepijn Bakker1,a and Andreas Schmittner1 1College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, USA
aNow at: MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Abstract. State-of-the-science global climate models show that global warming is likely to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While such models are arguably the best tools to perform AMOC projections, they do not allow a comprehensive uncertainty assessment because of limited computational resources. Here we present an AMOC-emulator, a box model with a number of free parameters that can be tuned to mimic the sensitivity of the AMOC to climate change of a specific global climate model. The AMOC-emulator (M-AMOC1.0) is applied to simulations of global warming and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, performed with an intermediate complexity model. Predictive power of the AMOC-emulator is shown by comparison with a number of additional warming and Greenland Ice Sheet melt scenario that have not been used in the tuning of the AMOC-emulator, highlighting the potential of the AMOC-emulator to assess the uncertainty in AMOC projections.

Citation: Bakker, P. and Schmittner, A.: AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79, 2016.
Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner
Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner

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Short summary
We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning methodology that allows us to mimic the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in any complex global climate model. The simplicity of the AMOC-emulator allows us to run large numbers of simulations, test the importance of a range of uncertainties and thus provide probabilistic AMOC projections driven by future climate change including the partial melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning...
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