AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections
Pepijn Bakker1,a and Andreas Schmittner11College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, USA aNow at: MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany
Received: 05 Apr 2016 – Accepted for review: 13 May 2016 – Discussion started: 17 May 2016
Abstract. State-of-the-science global climate models show that global warming is likely to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While such models are arguably the best tools to perform AMOC projections, they do not allow a comprehensive uncertainty assessment because of limited computational resources. Here we present an AMOC-emulator, a box model with a number of free parameters that can be tuned to mimic the sensitivity of the AMOC to climate change of a specific global climate model. The AMOC-emulator (M-AMOC1.0) is applied to simulations of global warming and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, performed with an intermediate complexity model. Predictive power of the AMOC-emulator is shown by comparison with a number of additional warming and Greenland Ice Sheet melt scenario that have not been used in the tuning of the AMOC-emulator, highlighting the potential of the AMOC-emulator to assess the uncertainty in AMOC projections.
Bakker, P. and Schmittner, A.: AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2016-79, 2016.