The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments
Masa Kageyama1, Samuel Albani1, Pascale Braconnot1, Sandy P. Harrison2, Peter O. Hopcroft3, Ruza F. Ivanovic4, Fabrice Lambert5, Olivier Marti1, W. Richard Peltier6, Jean-Yves Peterschmitt1, Didier M. Roche1,7, Lev Tarasov8, Xu Zhang9, Esther C. Brady10, Alan M. Haywood4, Allegra N. LeGrande11, Daniel J. Lunt3, Natalie M. Mahowald12, Uwe Mikolajewicz13, Kerim H. Nisancioglu14,15,16, Bette L. Otto-Bliesner10, Hans Renssen7,17, Robert A. Tomas10, Qiong Zhang18, Ayako Abe-Ouchi19, Patrick J. Bartlein20, Jian Cao21, Gerrit Lohmann9, Rumi Ohgaito22, Xiaoxu Shi9, Evgeny Volodin23, Kohei Yoshida24, Xiao Zhang25,26, and Weipeng Zheng271Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, LSCE/IPSL, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, Université Paris-Saclay, F-91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France 2Centre for Past Climate Change and School of Archaeology, Geography and Environmental Science (SAGES) University of Reading, Whiteknights, Reading, RG6 6AH, United Kingdom 3School of Geographical Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, United Kingdom 4School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, Leeds, LS2 9JT, United Kingdom 5Department of Physical Geography, Pontifical Catholic University of Chile, Santiago, Chile 6Department of Physics, University of Toronto, 60 St. George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A7, Canada 7Earth and Climate Cluster, Faculty of Earth and Life Sciences, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, Amsterdam, the Netherlands 8Department of Physics and Physical Oceanography, Memorial University of Newfoundland and Labrador, St. John’s, NL, A1B 3X7, Canada 9Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, Bussestrasse 24, 27570, Bremerhaven, Germany 10National Center for Atmospheric Research, 1850 Table Mesa Drive, Boulder, Colorado 80305, United States of America 11NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, 2880 Broadway, New York, NY 10025, United States of America 12Department of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences, Bradfield 1112, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, United States of America 13Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Bundesstrasse 53, 20146 Hamburg, Germany 14Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Uni Research Climate, Allégaten 55, 5007 Bergen, Norway 15Department of Earth Science, University of Bergen, Allégaten 41, 5007 Bergen, Norway 16Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway 17Department of Natural Sciences and Environmental Health, University College of Southeast Norway 18Department of Physical Geography, Stockholm University and Bolin Centre for Climate Research, Stockholm, Sweden 19Atmosphere Ocean Research Institute, University of Tokyo, 5-1-5, Kashiwanoha, Kashiwa-shi, Chiba 277-8564, Japan 20Department of Geography, University of Oregon, Eugene, OR 97403-1251, United States of America 21Earth System Modeling Center, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China 22Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama, Japan 23Institute of Numerical Mathematics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia 24Meteorological Research Institute, Nagamine 1-1, Tsukuba, Japan 25School of Atmospheric Science, Nanjing University of Information sciences and Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China 26International Pacific Research Center, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Honolulu, Hawaii, 96822, United States of America 27State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of China, 100029, Beijing, China
Received: 26 Jan 2017 – Accepted for review: 01 Feb 2017 – Discussion started: 23 Feb 2017
Abstract. The Last Glacial Maximum (LGM, 21,000 years ago) is one of the suite of paleoclimate simulations included in the current phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). It is an interval when insolation was similar to present, but global ice volume was at a maximum, eustatic sea level was at or close to a minimum, greenhouse gas concentrations were lower, atmospheric aerosol loadings were higher than today, and vegetation and land-surface characteristics were different from today. The LGM has been a focus for the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project (PMIP) since its inception, and thus many of the problems that might be associated with simulating such a radically different climate are well documented. The LGM state provides an ideal case study for evaluating climate model performance because the changes in forcing and temperature between the LGM and pre-industrial are of the same order of magnitude as those projected for the end of the 21st century. Thus, the CMIP6 LGM experiment could provide additional information that can be used to constrain estimates of climate sensitivity. The design of the Tier 1 LGM experiment (lgm) includes an assessment of uncertainties in boundary conditions, in particular through the use of different reconstructions of the ice sheets and of the change in dust forcing. Additional sensitivity experiments have been designed to quantify feedbacks associated with land-surface changes and aerosol loadings, and to isolate the role of individual forcings. Model analysis and evaluation will capitalise on the relative abundance of palaeoenvironmental observations and quantitative climate reconstructions already available for the LGM.
Kageyama, M., Albani, S., Braconnot, P., Harrison, S. P., Hopcroft, P. O., Ivanovic, R. F., Lambert, F., Marti, O., Peltier, W. R., Peterschmitt, J.-Y., Roche, D. M., Tarasov, L., Zhang, X., Brady, E. C., Haywood, A. M., LeGrande, A. N., Lunt, D. J., Mahowald, N. M., Mikolajewicz, U., Nisancioglu, K. H., Otto-Bliesner, B. L., Renssen, H., Tomas, R. A., Zhang, Q., Abe-Ouchi, A., Bartlein, P. J., Cao, J., Lohmann, G., Ohgaito, R., Shi, X., Volodin, E., Yoshida, K., Zhang, X., and Zheng, W.: The PMIP4 contribution to CMIP6 – Part 4: Scientific objectives and experimental design of the PMIP4-CMIP6 Last Glacial Maximum experiments and PMIP4 sensitivity experiments, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-18, in review, 2017.