Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-92
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed
under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
21 Apr 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
The relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability and ENSO simulated by the CMIP5
Tatiana Matveeva and Daria Gushchina Faculty of Geography, Moscow State University, GSP-1, 119991, Leninskie Gory, Moscow, Russia
Abstract. This study evaluates the simulation of relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability (ITV) and El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) in 23 models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) phase 5 (CMIP5) in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment Report (AR5). As a first step, the models' skill in simulating ENSO diversity is assessed, which indicates that 16 models among 23 are able to simulate realistically the statistics of the relative size of two types of El Niño. The characteristics of the ITV are then documented revealing that only five models (CMCC-CM, CCSM4, BNU-ESM, INMCM4 and MIROC5) simulate realistically the parameters crucial for proper reproducing of ITV contribution to the El Niño, in particular the total variability, seasonal cycle and propagation along the equator of Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and convectively coupled equatorial Rossby waves (ER). At last step the ITV/ENSO relationship in the models are analyzed and compared to observation. It is shown that the key aspects of this interaction such as phase lag between ITV peak activity and El Niño peak and longitude localization of maximum correlation between ITV and ENSO is realistically simulated by CMCC-CM and MIROC5 for MJO and CMCC-CM and INMCM4 for equatorial Rossby waves. These models are capable to reproduce the distinct MJO and ER behavior associated to the two El Niño flavors. Aforementioned models may be used for the investigation of the sensitivity of the ITV/ENSO seasonal dependence to global warming.

Citation: Matveeva, T. and Gushchina, D.: The relationship between intraseasonal tropical variability and ENSO simulated by the CMIP5, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., doi:10.5194/gmd-2017-92, in review, 2017.
Tatiana Matveeva and Daria Gushchina
Tatiana Matveeva and Daria Gushchina
Tatiana Matveeva and Daria Gushchina

Viewed

Total article views: 260 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

HTML PDF XML Total BibTeX EndNote
216 28 16 260 3 16

Views and downloads (calculated since 21 Apr 2017)

Cumulative views and downloads (calculated since 21 Apr 2017)

Viewed (geographical distribution)

Total article views: 260 (including HTML, PDF, and XML)

Thereof 260 with geography defined and 0 with unknown origin.

Country # Views %
  • 1

Saved

Discussed

Latest update: 29 May 2017
Publications Copernicus
Download
Short summary
Predicting El Niño both in current condition and for the next century is a key societal need. Intraseasonal atmosphere disturbances(ITV) plays an important role in triggering of El Niño, El Niño-ITV relationship may change in the future climate. The purpose of this study is to select the models the most skilful in simulation of ITV-El Niño relationship and thus promising for investigation of El Niño mechanism under global warming. CMCC-CM, MIROC5 and INMCM4 models of CMIP5 project were selected.
Predicting El Niño both in current condition and for the next century is a key societal need....
Share