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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2016-79
© Author(s) 2016. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.

Submitted as: model description paper 17 May 2016

Submitted as: model description paper | 17 May 2016

Review status
This preprint was under review for the journal GMD but the revision was not accepted.

AMOC-emulator M-AMOC1.0 for uncertainty assessment of future projections

Pepijn Bakker1,a and Andreas Schmittner1 Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner
  • 1College of Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University, USA
  • aNow at: MARUM – Center for Marine Environmental Sciences, University of Bremen, Bremen, Germany

Abstract. State-of-the-science global climate models show that global warming is likely to weaken the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). While such models are arguably the best tools to perform AMOC projections, they do not allow a comprehensive uncertainty assessment because of limited computational resources. Here we present an AMOC-emulator, a box model with a number of free parameters that can be tuned to mimic the sensitivity of the AMOC to climate change of a specific global climate model. The AMOC-emulator (M-AMOC1.0) is applied to simulations of global warming and melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, performed with an intermediate complexity model. Predictive power of the AMOC-emulator is shown by comparison with a number of additional warming and Greenland Ice Sheet melt scenario that have not been used in the tuning of the AMOC-emulator, highlighting the potential of the AMOC-emulator to assess the uncertainty in AMOC projections.

Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner

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AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Interactive discussion

Status: closed
Status: closed
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
Printer-friendly Version - Printer-friendly version Supplement - Supplement

Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner

Pepijn Bakker and Andreas Schmittner

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Latest update: 19 Feb 2020
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Short summary
We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning methodology that allows us to mimic the behaviour of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) in any complex global climate model. The simplicity of the AMOC-emulator allows us to run large numbers of simulations, test the importance of a range of uncertainties and thus provide probabilistic AMOC projections driven by future climate change including the partial melt of the Greenland Ice Sheet.
We present an AMOC-emulator framework consisting of a box model and a statistical tuning...
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