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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-105
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 License.
Development and technical paper
16 Jun 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0)
Matthew C. Wozniak and Allison Steiner Climate and Space Sciences and Engineering, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
Abstract. We develop a prognostic model of Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM) for use within regional and global climate models to simulate pollen counts over the seasonal cycle based on geography, vegetation type and meteorological parameters. Using modern surface pollen count data, empirical relationships between prior-year annual average temperature and pollen season start dates and end dates are developed for deciduous broadleaf trees (Acer, Alnus, Betula, Fraxinus, Morus, Platanus, Populus, Quercus, Ulmus), evergreen needleleaf trees (Cupressaceae, Pinaceae), grasses (Poaceae; C3, C4), and ragweed (Ambrosia). This regression model explains as much as 57 % of the variance in pollen phenological dates, and it is used to create a climate-flexible phenology that can be used to study the response of wind-driven pollen emissions to climate change. The emissions model is evaluated in a regional climate model (RegCM4) over the continental United States by prescribing an emission potential from PECM and transporting pollen as aerosol tracers. We evaluate two different pollen emissions scenarios in the model: (1) using a taxa-specific land cover database, phenology and emission potential, and (2) a PFT-based land cover, phenology and emission potential. The resulting surface concentrations for both simulations are evaluated against observed surface pollen counts in five climatic subregions. Given prescribed pollen emissions, the RegCM4 simulates observed concentrations within an order of magnitude, although the performance of the simulations in any subregion is strongly related to the land cover representation and the number of observation sites used to create the empirical phenological relationship. The taxa-based model provides a better representation of the phenology of tree-based pollen counts than the PFT-based model, however we note that the PFT-based version provides a useful and climate-flexible emissions model for the general representation of the pollen phenology over the United States.

Citation: Wozniak, M. C. and Steiner, A.: A prognostic pollen emissions model for climate models (PECM1.0), Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-105, in review, 2017.
Matthew C. Wozniak and Allison Steiner
Matthew C. Wozniak and Allison Steiner
Matthew C. Wozniak and Allison Steiner

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Short summary
A new parameterization, Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM), has been developed for use in climate models. New developments include 1) a new climate-sensitive, observation-based phenological model, 2) inclusion of the 13 highest-pollinating taxa in the United States, and 3) an option to compute pollen emissions by plant functional type (PFT). It can be used to address topics like impacts of climate change (e.g. on allergen exposure, on plant ecology) or pollen as an atmospheric aerosol.
A new parameterization, Pollen Emissions for Climate Models (PECM), has been developed for use...
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