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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-207
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model evaluation paper 06 Nov 2017

Model evaluation paper | 06 Nov 2017

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It has been under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD). The revised manuscript was not accepted.

Evaluating a fire smoke simulation algorithm in the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) by using multiple observation data sets during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field campaign

Li Pan1,2, Hyun Cheol Kim1,2, Pius Lee1, Rick Saylor3, YouHua Tang1,2, Daniel Tong1,2, Barry Baker1,2, Shobha Kondragunta4, Chuanyu Xu5, Mark G. Ruminski4, Weiwei Chen1,6, Jeff Mcqueen7, and Ivanka Stajner8 Li Pan et al.
  • 1NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 2UMD/Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 3NOAA/OAR/ARL/Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA
  • 4NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 5I. M. Systems Group at NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 6Northeast Institutes of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, P. R. China
  • 7NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 8NOAA/NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Abstract. Multiple observation data sets, including Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network data, Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm (ASDTA), Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke plume shapefiles and aircraft acetonitrile (CH3CN) measurements from the NOAA Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field campaign are used to evaluate the HMS-BlueSky-SMOKE-CMAQ fire emissions and smoke plume prediction system. A similar configuration is used in the National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). The system was found to capture signatures of most of the observed fire signals. Use of HMS-detected fire hotspots and smoke plume information are valuable for both initiating fire emissions and evaluating model simulations. However, we also found that the current system does not include fire contributions through lateral boundary condition and missed fires that are not associated with visible smoke plumes resulting in significant simulation uncertainties. In this study we focused not only on model evaluation but also on evaluation methods. We discuss how to use observational data correctly to filter out fire signals and synergistic use of multiple data sets together. We also address the limitations of each of the observation data sets and of the evaluation methods.

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Li Pan et al.
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Short summary
In this study, a system accounting for fire emissions in a chemical transport model is described. The focus of this work is to qualitatively evaluate the system's capability to capture fire signals identified by multiple observation data sets. We discuss how to use observational data correctly to filter out fire signals and synergistic use of multiple data sets together. We also address the limitations of each of the observation data sets and of the evaluation methods.
In this study, a system accounting for fire emissions in a chemical transport model is...
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