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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-307
© Author(s) 2017. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Model evaluation paper
20 Dec 2017
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 2.0 for global multispecies forecasting at NOAA/NCEP: Part II Evaluation of Aerosol Optical Thickness
Partha S. Bhattacharjee1, Jun Wang1, Cheng-Hsuan Lu2, and Vijay Tallapragada3 1I. M. Systems Group at NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, 20740, USA
2University of Albany, State University of NewYork, Albany, 12222, USA
3NOAA/NWS/NCEP/EMC, College Park, 20740, USA
Abstract. An accurate representation of aerosols in global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models is important to predict major air pollution events and to also understand aerosol effects on short-term weather forecasts. Recently the global aerosol forecast model at NOAA, the NOAA Environmental Modeling System (NEMS) GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC), was upgraded from its dust-only version 1 to include five species of aerosols (black carbon, organic carbon, sulfate, sea-salt and dust). This latest upgrade, now called NGACv2, is an in-line aerosol forecast system providing 3-dimensioanl aerosol mixing ratios along with aerosol optical properties, including aerosol optical thickness (AOT), every 3 hours up to 5 days at global 1° × 1° resolution. In this paper, we evaluated nearly one and half years of model AOT at 550 nm with available satellite retrievals, multi-model ensembles and surface observations over different aerosol regimes. Evaluation results show that NGACv2 has high correlations and low root mean square errors associated with African dust and also accurately represented the seasonal shift of aerosol plumes from Africa. Also, the model represented South African and Canadian forest fires, dust from Asia and AOT within the US with some degree of success. We have identified model underestimation for some of the aerosol regimes (particularly over Asia) and will investigate this further to improve the model forecast. The addition of a data assimilation capability to NGAC in the near future is expected to improve some of the model biases.

Citation: Bhattacharjee, P. S., Wang, J., Lu, C.-H., and Tallapragada, V.: The implementation of NEMS GFS Aerosol Component (NGAC) Version 2.0 for global multispecies forecasting at NOAA/NCEP: Part II Evaluation of Aerosol Optical Thickness, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2017-307, in review, 2017.
Partha S. Bhattacharjee et al.
Partha S. Bhattacharjee et al.
Partha S. Bhattacharjee et al.

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Short summary
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at NOAA recently upgraded their operational global aerosol forecast model from dust only in version 1 to five species (dust, sea-salt, black and organic carbon and sea-salt) of aerosols in version 2. In this work, we have validated the newly implemented aerosol model (NGACv2) which forecast at every 3 hours up to five days against ground and satellite observations and other available model simulations.
National Center for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) at NOAA recently upgraded their operational...
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