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Discussion papers | Copyright
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model experiment description paper 25 Jun 2018

Model experiment description paper | 25 Jun 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

A protocol for an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized land-use and climate scenarios

HyeJin Kim1,2, Isabel M. D. Rosa1,2, Rob Alkemade3,4, Paul Leadley5, George Hurtt6, Alexander Popp7, Detlef P van Vuuren8, Peter Anthoni9, Almut Arneth9, Daniele Baisero10, Emma Caton11, Rebecca Chaplin-Kramer12, Louise Chini6, Adriana De Palma11, Fulvio Di Fulvio13, Moreno Di Marco14, Felipe Espinoza11, Simon Ferrier15, Shinichiro Fujimori16, Ricardo E. Gonzalez18, Maya Gueguen29, Carlos Guerra1,2, Mike Harfoot19, Thomas D. Harwood15, Tomoko Hasegawa17, Vanessa Haverd20, Petr Havlík13, Stefanie Hellweg21, Samantha L. L. Hill11,19, Akiko Hirata22, Andrew J. Hoskins15, Jan H. Janse3,23, Walter Jetz24, Justin A. Johnson25, Andreas Krause9, David Leclère13, Ines S. Martins1,2, Tetsuya Matsui22, Cory Merow24, Michael Obersteiner13, Haruka Ohashi22, Benjamin Poulter26, Andy Purvis11,27, Benjamin Quesada9, Carlo Rondinini10, Aafke Schipper3,28, Richard Sharp12, Kiyoshi Takahashi17, Wilfried Thuiller29, Nicolas Titeux1,30, Piero Visconti31,32, Christopher Ware15, Florian Wolf1,2, and Henrique M. Pereira1,2,33 HyeJin Kim et al.
  • 1German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv) Halle-Jena-Leipzig, Deutscher Platz 5e, 04103 Leipzig, Germany
  • 2Institute of Biology, Martin Luther University Halle Wittenberg, Am Kirchtor 1, 06108 Halle (Saale), Germany
  • 3PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, the Hague, the Netherlands
  • 4Environmental System Analysis Group, Wageningen University, the Netherlands
  • 5Ecologie Systématique Evolution, Univ. Paris-Sud, CNRS, AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, 91400, Orsay, France
  • 6Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 7Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany
  • 8Copernicus Institute for Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Utrecht, the Netherlands
  • 9Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Dept. Meteorology and Climate/Atmospheric Environmental Research, Kreuzeckbahnstr. 19, 82467 Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany
  • 10C/O Global Mammal Assessment program, Department of Biology and Biotechnologies, Sapienza Università di Roma, Viale dell’Univerisità 32, I-00185, Rome, Italy
  • 11Department of Life Sciences, Natural History Museum, London SW7 5BD, UK
  • 12The Natural Capital Project, Stanford University, 371 Serra Mall, Stanford, CA 94305, USA
  • 13In ternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, Laxenburg 2361, Austria
  • 14CSIRO Land and Wa ter, GPO Box 2583, Brisbane QLD 4001, Australia
  • 15CSIRO Land and Water, GPO Box 1700, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia
  • 16Kyoto University, Department of Environmental Engineering, 361, C1-3, Kyoto University Katsura Campus, Nishikyo-ku, Kyoto-city, 615-8540 Japan
  • 17Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), 16–2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305–8506, Japan
  • 18Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
  • 19UN Environment, World Conservation Monitoring Centre, 219 Huntingdon Road, Cambridge, CB3 0DL, UK
  • 20CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, Canberra, 2601, Australia
  • 21Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich, 8093 Zurich, Switzerland
  • 22Forestry and Forest Products Research Institute, Forest Research and Management Organization, 1 Matsunosato, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8687, Japan
  • 23Netherlands Inst. of Ecology NIOO-KNAW, Wageningen, the Netherlands
  • 24Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Yale University, 165 Prospect St, New Haven, CT 06511, USA
  • 25Institute on the Environment, University of Minnesota, 1954 Buford Ave. St. Paul, MN 55105, USA
  • 26NASA GSFC, Biospheric Science Lab., Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA
  • 27Department of Life Sciences, Imperial College London, Silwood Park, Ascot SL5 7PY, UK
  • 28Institute for Water and Wetland Research, PO Box 9010, 6500 GL Nijmegen, the Netherlands
  • 29Univ. Grenoble Alpes, CNRS, Univ. Savoie Mont Blanc, Laboratoire d'Écologie Alpine (LECA), F-38000 Grenoble, France
  • 30Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research - UFZ, Department of Community Ecology, Theodor-Lieser-Strasse 4, D-06210 Halle, Germany
  • 31Institute of Zoology, Zoological Society of London, Regent's Park, London, NW1 4RY
  • 32Centre for Biodiversity and Environment Research, University College London, Gower Street, London, C1E6BT
  • 33CIBIO/InBIO, Centro de Investigação em Biodiversidade e Recursos Genéticos, Cátedra REFER-Biodiveridade, Universidade do Porto, Campus Agrário de Vairão, R. Padre Armando Quintas, 4485-661 Vairão, Portugal

Abstract. To support the assessments of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES), the IPBES Expert Group on Scenarios and Models is carrying out an intercomparison of biodiversity and ecosystem services models using harmonized scenarios (BES-SIM). The goals of BES-SIM are (1) to project the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services (i.e. nature’s contributions to people) over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using a set of common metrics at multiple scales, and (2) to identify model uncertainties and research gaps through the comparisons of projected biodiversity and ecosystem services across models. BES-SIM uses three scenarios combining specific Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) to explore a wide range of land-use change and climate change futures. This paper describes the rationale for scenarios selection, the process of harmonizing input data for land use, based on the second phase of the Land Use Harmonization Project (LUH2), and climate, the biodiversity and ecosystem service models used, the core simulations carried out, the harmonization of the model output metrics, and the treatment of uncertainty. The results of this collaborative modelling project will support the ongoing global assessment of IPBES, strengthen ties between IPBES and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios and modelling processes, advise the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) on its development of a post-2020 strategic plans and conservation goals, and inform the development of a new generation of nature-centred scenarios.

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HyeJin Kim et al.
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Short summary
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based Intercomparison of Models (BES-SIM) that projects the global impacts of land use and climate change on biodiversity and ecosystem services over the coming decades, compared to the 20th century, using harmonized scenarios and input data and a set of common output metrics at multiple scales, and identify model uncertainties and research gaps.
This paper lays out the protocol for the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Scenario-based...