Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-118
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Development and technical paper
14 May 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS v2.2 Seasonal v1.0
Rebecca Emerton1,2, Ervin Zsoter1,2, Louise Arnal1,2, Hannah L. Cloke1,3, Davide Muraro6, Christel Prudhomme2,4,5, Elisabeth M. Stephens1, Peter Salamon6, and Florian Pappenberger2 1University of Reading, Reading, UK
2European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Reading, UK
3Uppsala University, Uppsala, Sweden
4Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (CEH), Wallingford, UK
5University of Loughborough, Loughborough, UK
6Joint Research Centre (JRC), European Commission, Ispra, Italy
Abstract. Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications, including disaster risk reduction initiatives. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks, or even months, in advance, but seasonal forecasts for hydrological variables at large or global scales are few and far between. Here, we present the first operational global scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS-Seasonal. Developed as an extension of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS), GloFAS-Seasonal couples seasonal meteorological forecasts from ECMWF with a hydrological model, to provide openly available probabilistic forecasts of river flow out to 4 months ahead for the global river network. This system has potential benefits not only for disaster risk reduction through early awareness of floods and droughts, but also for water-related sectors such as agriculture and water resources management, in particular for regions where no other forecasting system exists. We describe the key hydro-meteorological components and computational framework of GloFAS-Seasonal, alongside the forecast products available, before discussing initial evaluation results and next steps.
Citation: Emerton, R., Zsoter, E., Arnal, L., Cloke, H. L., Muraro, D., Prudhomme, C., Stephens, E. M., Salamon, P., and Pappenberger, F.: Developing a global operational seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system: GloFAS v2.2 Seasonal v1.0, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-118, in review, 2018.
Rebecca Emerton et al.
Rebecca Emerton et al.
Rebecca Emerton et al.

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Short summary
Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications, from agriculture to disaster risk reduction. Seasonal forecasts are designed to provide early indications of such events weeks, or even months, in advance. This paper introduces GloFAS-Seasonal, the first operational global scale seasonal hydro-meteorological forecasting system, producing openly available forecasts of high and low river flow out to 4 months ahead.
Global overviews of upcoming flood and drought events are key for many applications, from...
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