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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-184
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-184
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Development and technical paper 24 Sep 2018

Development and technical paper | 24 Sep 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. A revision of the manuscript is under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Stochastic perturbations for parametrisation tendencies in a convection-permitting ensemble

Clemens Wastl, Yong Wang, Aitor Atencia, and Christoph Wittman Clemens Wastl et al.
  • Department of Forecasting Models, Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik, Vienna, Austria

Abstract. A modification of the widely used SPPT (Stochastically Perturbed Parametrisation Tendencies) scheme is proposed and tested in a Convection-permitting – Limited Area Ensemble Forecasting system (C-LAEF) developed at ZAMG (Zentralanstalt für Meteorologie und Geodynamik). The tendencies from four physical parametrisation schemes are perturbed: radiation, shallow convection, turbulence and microphysics. Whereas in SPPT the total model tendencies are perturbed, in the present approach (pSPPT hereinafter) the partial tendencies of the physics parametrisation schemes are sequentially perturbed. Thus, in pSPPT an interaction between the uncertainties of the different physics parametrisation schemes is sustained and a more physically consistent relationship between the processes is kept. Two configurations of pSPPT are evaluated over two months (one of summer and another of winter). Both schemes increase the stability of the model and lead to statistically significant improvements in the probabilistic performance compared to the original SPPT. An evaluation of selected test cases shows that the positive effect of stochastic physics is much more pronounced on days with high convective activity. Small discrepancies in the humidity analysis can be dedicated to the use of a very simple supersaturation adjustment. This and other adjustments are discussed to provide some suggestions for future investigations.

Clemens Wastl et al.
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Clemens Wastl et al.
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Latest update: 10 Dec 2018
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Short summary
Ensemble forecasting at the convection permitting scale (< 3 km) requires new methodologies in representing model uncertainties. In this paper a new stochastic scheme is proposed and tested in the complex terrain of the Alps. In this scheme the tendencies of the physical parametrisations are perturbed separately which sustains a physically consistent relationship between the processes. The new scheme increases the stability of the model and leads to improvements in the probabilistic performance.
Ensemble forecasting at the convection permitting scale ( 3 km) requires new methodologies in...
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