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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-199
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper 21 Sep 2018

Model description paper | 21 Sep 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Stochastic Ensemble Climate Forecast with an Analogue Mode

Pascal Yiou1 and Céline Déandréis2 Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
  • 1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL and Université Paris-Saclay, CE l'Orme des Merisiers, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France
  • 2ARIA Technologies, 8-10 Rue de la Ferme, 92100 Boulogne-Billancourt, France

Abstract. This paper presents a system to perform large ensembles climate stochastic forecasts. The system is based on random analogue sampling of sea-level pressure data from the NCEP reanalysis. It is tested to forecast an NAO index and the daily average temperature in five European stations. We simulated 100 member ensembles of averages over lead times from 5 days to 80 days in a hindcast mode, i.e. from a meteorological to a seasonal forecast. We tested the hindcast simulations with usual forecast skill scores (CRPSS or correlation), against persistence and climatology. We find significantly positive skill scores for all time scales. Although this model cannot outperform numerical weather prediction, it presents an interesting benchmark that could complement climatology or persistence forecast.

Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
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Status: open (until 17 Nov 2018)
Status: open (until 17 Nov 2018)
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Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
Pascal Yiou and Céline Déandréis
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Latest update: 18 Oct 2018
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Short summary
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and the North Atlantic Oscillation index. This system is based on a stochastic weather generator that samples analogues of SLP. This paper provides statistical tests of temperature and NAO forecasts for timescales of days to months. We argue that the forecast skill of the system is significantly positive and could be used as a baseline for numerical weather forecast.
We devised a system that simulates large ensembles of forecasts for European temperatures and...
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