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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-209
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model evaluation paper 25 Oct 2018

Model evaluation paper | 25 Oct 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Overview of climate change in the BESM-OA2.5 climate model

Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano1,2, Paulo Nobre1, Renata Tedeschi1, Josiane Silva1, Marcus Bottino1, Manoel Baptista da Silva Jr.1, Otacílio Leandro Menezes Neto1, Silvio Nilo Figueroa1, José Paulo Bonatti1, Paulo Yoshio Kubota1, Julio Pablo Reyes Fernandez1, Emanuel Giarolla1, Jessica Vial3, and Carlos A. Nobre4 Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano et al.
  • 1Center for Weather Forecast and Climate Studies/National Institute for Space Research (CPTEC/INPE), Cachoeira Paulista – São Paulo, Brazil
  • 2Amazonas State University (UEA), Manaus – Amazonas, Brazil
  • 3Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique/Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (LMD/CNRS), Paris, France
  • 4National Center for Monitoring and Early Warning of Natural Disasters (CEMADEN), São José dos Campos – São Paulo, Brazil

Abstract. The main features of climate change patterns, as simulated by the coupled ocean-atmosphere version 2.5 of the Brazilian Earth System Model (BESM-OA2.5) are contrasted with those of other 25 CMIP5 models, focusing on temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation. The climate sensitivity to quadrupling atmospheric CO2 concentration is investigated from two techniques: Gregory et al. (2004) and Radiative Kernel (Soden and Held, 2006; Soden et al., 2008) methods. Radiative kernels from both NCAR and GFDL are used in order to decompose the climate feedback responses of CMIP5 models and BESM-OA2.5 into different processes. Applying the Gregory method for equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) estimation, we obtain values ranging from 2.07 to 4.74K for the CMIP5 models and 2.96K for BESM, which is close to the ensemble mean value (3.30K±0.76). The study reveals that BESM has shown zonally averaged feedbacks estimated from Radiative Kernel within the ensemble standard deviation of the other CMIP5 models. The exceptions are found in the high-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, where BESM shows values for lapse-rate and humidity feedbacks marginally out of the limit between minimum and maximum of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, as well as in the Arctic region and over the ocean near the Antarctic for cloud feedback. Moreover, BESM shows physically consistent changes in the pattern of temperature, precipitation and atmospheric circulation.

Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano et al.
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Status: open (until 20 Dec 2018)
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Vinicius Buscioli Capistrano et al.
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Short summary
This work represents the product of our recent efforts to develop a Brazilian climate model and helps to answer some scientific issues in the frontier of the knowledge (e.g. cloud feedback study). The BESM results show climate sensitivity and thermodynamical responses similar to the other CMIP5 ensemble. More than that, BESM has the objective of being an additional climate model with ability of reproduce changes that are physically understood in order to study the global climate system.
This work represents the product of our recent efforts to develop a Brazilian climate model and...
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