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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-230
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-230
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: model evaluation paper 14 Dec 2018

Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 14 Dec 2018

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A revised version of this preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Evaluating a fire smoke simulation algorithm in the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) by using multiple observation data sets during the Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field campaign

Li Pan1,2, Hyun Cheol Kim1,2, Pius Lee1, Rick Saylor3, Youhua Tang1,2, Daniel Tong1,2, Barry Baker1,2, Shobha Kondragunta4, Chuanyu Xu5, Mark G. Ruminski4, Weiwei Chen1,6, Jeff Mcqueen7, and Ivanka Stajner8 Li Pan et al.
  • 1NOAA/OAR/Air Resources Laboratory, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 2UMD/Cooperative Institute for Climate and Satellites, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 3NOAA/OAR/ARL/Atmospheric Turbulence and Diffusion Division, Oak Ridge, TN 37830, USA
  • 4NOAA/NESDIS, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 5I. M. Systems Group at NOAA, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 6Northeast Institutes of Geography and Agroecology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Changchun 130102, P. R. China
  • 7NOAA/NCEP/Environmental Modeling Center, College Park, MD 20740, USA
  • 8NOAA/NWS Office of Science and Technology Integration, Silver Spring, MD 20910, USA

Abstract. Multiple observation data sets: Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments (IMPROVE) network data, Automated Smoke Detection and Tracking Algorithm (ASDTA), Hazard Mapping System (HMS) smoke plume shapefiles and aircraft acetonitrile (CH3CN) measurements from the NOAA Southeast Nexus (SENEX) field campaign are used to evaluate the HMS-BlueSky-SMOKE CMAQ fire emissions and smoke plume prediction system. A similar configuration is used in the US National Air Quality Forecasting Capability (NAQFC). The system was found to capture most of the observed fire signals. Usage of HMS-detected fire hotspots and smoke plume information were valuable for both deriving fire emissions and forecast evaluation. This study also helped identified that the operational NAQFC did not include fire contributions through lateral boundary conditions resulting in significant simulation uncertainties. In this study we focused both on system evaluation and evaluation methods. We discussed how to use observational data correctly to filter out fire signals and synergistically use multiple data sets. We also addressed the limitations of each of the observation data sets and evaluation methods.

Li Pan et al.

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Li Pan et al.

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Short summary
US NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational system simulating wildfire.
US NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) operational system simulating wildfire.
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