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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-239
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-239
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Development and technical paper 21 Nov 2018

Development and technical paper | 21 Nov 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Towards End-2-End modelling in a consistent NPZD-F modelling framework (ECOSMOE2E_vs1.0): Application to the North Sea and Baltic Sea

Ute Daewel1, Corinna Schrum1,2, and Jed Macdonald3,4 Ute Daewel et al.
  • 1Helmholtz Centre Geesthacht, Institute of Coastal Research, Max-Planck-Str. 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany
  • 2Geophysical Institute, University of Bergen, Allegaten 41, 5007 Bergen, Norway
  • 3Faculty of Life and Environmental Sciences, University of Iceland, 101 Reykjavík, Iceland
  • 4School of BioSciences, The University of Melbourne, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia

Abstract. Coupled physical-biological models usually resolve only parts of the trophic food chain and hence, run the risk of neglecting relevant ecosystem processes. Additionally, this imposes a closure term problem at the respective “ends” of the considered trophic levels. Here we propose a consistent NPZD-Fish modelling approach (ECOSMO E2E) to address the above-mentioned problem in lower trophic ecosystem modelling, and to understand how the implementation of higher trophic levels in a NPZD model affects the simulated response of the combined North Sea and Baltic Sea ecosystem.

On the basis of the coupled ecosystem model ECOSMO II we implemented one functional group that represents fish and one group representing macrobenthos in the 3d model formulation. Both groups are linked to the lower trophic levels and to each other via predator-prey relationships. The model allows investigating bottom-up impacts on primary and secondary production and cumulative fish biomass dynamics, but also top-down mechanisms on the lower trophic level production. Model results for a ten-year long simulation period (1980–1989) were analysed and discussed with respect to the observed pattern. To address the relevance of the newly implemented trophic levels for the simulated model response, we compare the performance of the ECOSMO E2E to a respective truncated NPZD model (ECOSMO II), which simulated the same time period. Additionally, we performed scenario tests to analyse the new role of the zooplankton mortality closure term in the truncated NPZD and the fish mortality term in the end-to-end model, which summarizes pressure imposed on the system by fisheries and mortality imposed by apex predators.

We found that the model-simulated macrobenthos and fish spatial and seasonal pattern agree well with current system understanding. Considering a dynamic fish component in the ecosystem model resulted in slightly improved model performance with respect to representation of spatial and temporal variations in nutrients, changes in modelled plankton seasonality and nutrient profiles. Model sensitivity scenarios showed that changes in the zooplankton mortality parameter are transferred up and down the trophic chain with little attenuation of the signal, while major changes in fish mortality and in fish biomass cascade down the food chain.

Ute Daewel et al.
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Short summary
Here we propose a novel modelling approach that includes an extended food web in a functional group type marine ecosystem model (ECOSMO E2E), by formulating new groups for macrobenthos and fish. The approach enables estimating the dynamics of the higher trophic level production potential, but also constitutes a more consistent closure term for the lower trophic level ecosystem. Thus the model allows investigating control mechanisms for marine ecosystems with high spatial and temporal resolution.
Here we propose a novel modelling approach that includes an extended food web in a functional...
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