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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-242
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper 08 Nov 2018

Model description paper | 08 Nov 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

PALEO-PGEM v1.0: A statistical emulator of Pliocene-Pleistocene climate

Philip B. Holden1, Neil R. Edwards1, Thiago F. Rangel2, Elisa B. Pereira2, Giang T. Tran3, and Richard D. Wilkinson4 Philip B. Holden et al.
  • 1Earth, Environment and Ecosystems, The Open University, Walton Hall, Milton Keynes MK7 6AA, UK
  • 2Departmento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goiás, CP 131, 74.001-970 Goiânia, Goiás, Brazi
  • 3GEOMAR Helmholtz Centre for Ocean Research Kiel, Düsternbrooker Weg 20, 24105 Kiel, Germany
  • 4School of Mathematics and Statistics, University of Sheffield, Sheffield, UK

Abstract. We describe the development of the “Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE emulator” PALEO-PGEM and its application to derive a downscaled high-resolution spatiotemporal description of the climate of the last five million years. The 5-million-year time frame is interesting for a range of paleo-environmental questions, not least because it encompasses the evolution of humans. However, the choice of time-frame was primarily pragmatic; tectonic changes can be neglected to first order, so that it is reasonable to consider climate forcing restricted to the Earth's orbital configuration, ice-sheet state and the concentration of atmosphere CO2. The approach uses the Gaussian process emulation of the singular value decomposition of boundary-condition ensembles of the intermediate complexity atmosphere-ocean GCM PLASIM-GENIE. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables of surface air temperature (warmest and coolest seasons) and precipitation (wettest and driest seasons) are emulated at 1,000 year intervals, driven by time-series of scalar boundary-condition forcing (CO2, orbit and ice-volume), and assuming the climate is in quasi-equilibrium. Paleoclimate anomalies at climate model resolution are interpolated onto the observed modern climatology to produce a high-resolution spatiotemporal paleoclimate reconstruction of the Pliocene-Pleistocene.

Philip B. Holden et al.
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We describe the development of the Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE emulator and its application to derive a high-resolution spatiotemporal description of the climate of the last five million years. Spatial fields of bioclimatic variables are emulated at 1,000 year intervals, driven by time-series of scalar boundary-condition forcing (CO2, orbit and ice-volume). Emulated anomalies are interpolated onto modern climatology to produce a high-resolution climate reconstruction of the Pliocene-Pleistocene.
We describe the development of the Paleoclimate PLASIM-GENIE emulator and its application to...
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