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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-248
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-248
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Development and technical paper 02 Jan 2019

Development and technical paper | 02 Jan 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Calibration and analysis of the uncertainty in downscaling global land use and land cover projections from GCAM

Min Chen1, Chris R. Vernon2, Maoyi Huang2, Katherine V. Calvin1, and Ian P. Kraucunas2 Min Chen et al.
  • 1Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, College Park, Maryland 20740, USA
  • 2Atmospheric Sciences and Global Change Division, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, P.O. Box 999, Richland, Washington 99352, USA

Abstract. Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. We used long-term global satellite-based land cover records to calibrate key Demeter parameters. The results identified the optimal parameter values and showed that the parameterization substantially improved the model’s performance. The parameters of intensification ratio and selection threshold were the most sensitive and needed to be carefully tuned, especially for regional applications. Further, small parameter uncertainties after calibration can be inflated when propagated into future scenarios, suggesting that users should consider the parameterization equifinality to better account for the uncertainties in the Demeter downscaled products. Our study provides a key reference for Demeter users, and ultimately contribute to reducing the uncertainties in Earth system model simulations.

Min Chen et al.
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Status: final response (author comments only)
Status: final response (author comments only)
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Latest update: 18 Mar 2019
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Short summary
Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover changes projected by integrated human-Earth system models. However, Demeter has not been intensively calibrated, and we still lack a good knowledge about its sensitivity to key parameters and the parameter uncertainties. This paper aims to solve this problem.
Demeter is a community spatial downscaling model that disaggregates land use and land cover...
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