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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-266
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-266
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model experiment description paper 09 Nov 2018

Model experiment description paper | 09 Nov 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Global emissions pathways under different socioeconomic scenarios for use in CMIP6: a dataset of harmonized emissions trajectories through the end of the century

Matthew J. Gidden1, Keywan Riahi1, Steven J. Smith2, Shinichiro Fujimori3, Gunnar Luderer4, Elmar Kriegler4, Detlef P. van Vuuren5, Maarten van den Berg5, Leyang Feng2, David Klein4, Katherine Calvin2, Johnathan C. Doelman5, Stefan Frank1, Oliver Fricko1, Mathijs Harmsen5, Tomoko Hasegawa3, Petr Havlik1, Jérôme Hilaire4,6, Rachel Hoesly2, Jill Horing2, Alexander Popp4, Elke Stehfest5, and Kioshi Takahashi3 Matthew J. Gidden et al.
  • 1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria
  • 2Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740
  • 3Center for Social and Environmental Systems Research, National Institute for Environmental Studies, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki 305-8506, Japan
  • 4Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Member of the Leibniz Association, P.O. Box 60 12 03, D-14412 Potsdam, Germany
  • 5PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Postbus 30314, 2500 GH The Hague, Netherlands
  • 6Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH, EUREF Campus 19, Torgauer Str. 12-15, 10829 Berlin

Abstract. We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources, a key deliverable of the ScenarioMIP experiment within CMIP6. Integrated Assessment Model results for 14 different emissions species and 13 emissions sectors are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data used in CMIP6 to future trajectories using automated harmonization before being downscaled to provide higher emission source spatial detail. We find that the scenarios span a wide range of end-of-century radiative forcing values, thus making this set of scenarios ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. The set of scenarios are bounded on the low end by a 1.9Wm-2 scenario, ideal for analyzing a world with end-of-century temperatures well below 2°C, and on the high-end by a 8.5Wm-2 scenario, resulting in an increase in warming of nearly 5°C over pre-industrial levels. Between these two extremes, scenarios are provided such that differences between forcing outcomes provide statistically significant regional temperature outcomes to maximize their usefulness for downstream experiments within CMIP6. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.

Matthew J. Gidden et al.
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Status: open (until 10 Jan 2019)
Status: open (until 10 Jan 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Matthew J. Gidden et al.
Model code and software

aneris: Harmonization for Integrated Assessment Models M. J. Gidden https://zenodo.org/record/802832

IAM Emissions Downscaling L. Feng, X. Gutierrez, C. Braun, S. Smith, and M. Gidden https://zenodo.org/record/1476850

Matthew J. Gidden et al.
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We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources for use in CMIP6. Integrated Assessment Model results are provided for each scenario with consistent transitions from the historical data to future trajectories. We find that the set of scenarios are ideal for exploring a variety of warming pathways. A wide range of scenario data products are provided for the CMIP6 scientific community including global, regional, and gridded emissions datasets.
We present a suite of nine scenarios of future emissions trajectories of anthropogenic sources...
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