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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-31
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the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Development and technical paper 07 Mar 2018

Development and technical paper | 07 Mar 2018

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This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Implementing spatially explicit seed and pollen dispersal in the individual-based larch simulation model: LAVESI-WIND 1.0

Stefan Kruse1, Alexander Gerdes1,2, Nadja J. Kath3, and Ulrike Herzschuh1,3,4 Stefan Kruse et al.
  • 1Polar Terrestrial Environmental Systems Research Group, Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany
  • 2Institute of Physics and Astronomy, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
  • 3Institute of Biology and Biochemistry, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany
  • 4Institute of Earth and Environmental Science, University of Potsdam, 14476 Potsdam, Germany

Abstract. It is of major interest to estimate the feedback of arctic ecosystems to the global warming we expect in upcoming decades. The speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate, tracking their climate optimum. For this, sessile plants have to produce and disperse seeds to newly available habitats, and pollination is needed for the seeds to be viable. These two processes are also the vectors that pass genetic information through a population. A restricted exchange among subpopulations might lead to a maladapted population due to diversity losses. Hence, a realistic implementation of these dispersal processes into a simulation model would allow an assessment of the importance of diversity for the migration of plant species in various environments worldwide. To date, dynamic global vegetation models have been optimised for a global application and overestimate the migration of biome shifts in currently warming temperatures. We hypothesise that this is caused by neglecting important fine-scale processes, which are necessary to estimate realistic vegetation trajectories. Recently, we built and parameterised a simulation model LAVESI for larches that dominate the latitudinal treelines in the northernmost areas of Siberia. In this study, we updated the vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The seed dispersal is modelled as a ballistic flight, and for the pollination of seeds produced, we implemented a wind-determined and distance-dependent probability distribution function using a von Mises distribution to select the potential pollen donor. This individual-based and spatially explicit implementation of both dispersal processes makes it easily feasible to inherit plant traits and genetic information to assess the impact of migration processes on the genetics. The final model can substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics and, with this, guide the improvement of recent global vegetation models.

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Stefan Kruse et al.
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Stefan Kruse et al.
Model code and software

Source code of the host model LAVESI Stefan Kruse; Mareike Wieczorek https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1155486

LAVESI-WIND and the first version 1.0 Stefan Kruse; Alexander Gerdes; Nadja J. Kath https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1165383

Stefan Kruse et al.
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Short summary
It is of major interest to estimate feedbacks of arctic ecosystems to global warming in the upcoming decades. However, the speed of this response is driven by the potential of species to migrate and the timing and spatial scale for this is rather uncertain. To close this knowledge gap, we updated a very detailed vegetation model by including seed and pollen dispersal driven by wind speed and direction. The new model can substantially help in unveiling the important drivers of migration dynamics.
It is of major interest to estimate feedbacks of arctic ecosystems to global warming in the...
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