Journal cover Journal topic
Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-4
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
Methods for assessment of models
05 Feb 2018
Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).
Bayesian inference of earthquake rupture models using polynomial chaos expansion
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez1, Guotu Li2, Paul Martin Mai1, Ibrahim Hoteit1, and Omar M. Knio1,2 1King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, Thuwal 23955, Saudi Arabia
2Duke University, Durham, NC 27708, USA
Abstract. In this paper we employed polynomial chaos (PC) expansions to understand earthquake rupture model responses to random fault plane properties. A sensitivity analysis based on our PC surrogate model suggests that the hypocenter location plays a dominant role in peak ground velocity (PGV) responses, while elliptical patch properties only show secondary impact. In addition, the PC surrogate model is utilized for Bayesian inference of the most likely underlying fault plane configuration in light of a set of PGV observations from a ground motion prediction equation (GMPE). A restricted sampling approach is also developed to incorporate additional physical constraints on the fault plane configuration, and to increase the sampling efficiency.

Citation: Cruz-Jiménez, H., Li, G., Mai, P. M., Hoteit, I., and Knio, O. M.: Bayesian inference of earthquake rupture models using polynomial chaos expansion, Geosci. Model Dev. Discuss., https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-4, in review, 2018.
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez et al.
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez et al.
Hugo Cruz-Jiménez et al.

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Short summary
One of the most important challenges seismologists and earthquake engineers face is to reliably estimate ground motion in an area prone to large damaging earthquakes. This study aimed at better understanding the relationship between characteristics of geological faults (e.g. hypocenter location, rupture size/location etc) and the resulting ground motion, via statistical analysis of a rupture simulation model. It is suggested that ground motion is most sensitive to the hypocenter location.
One of the most important challenges seismologists and earthquake engineers face is to reliably...
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