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Discussion papers | Copyright
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2018-60
© Author(s) 2018. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Model description paper 29 Mar 2018

Model description paper | 29 Mar 2018

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Computationally Efficient Emulators for Earth System Models

Robert Link, Cary Lynch, Abigail Snyder, Corinne Hartin, Ben Kravitz, and Ben Bond-Lamberty Robert Link et al.
  • Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Joint Global Change Research Institute, 5825 University Research Ct., College Park, MD

Abstract. Earth System Models (ESMs) are the gold standard for producing future projections of climate change, but running them is difficult and costly, and thus researchers are generally limited to a small selection of scenarios. This paper presents a technique for detailed emulation of Earth System Model (ESM) temperature output, based on constructing a deterministic model for the mean response to global temperature. The residuals between the mean response and the observed temperature fields are used to construct variability fields that are added to the mean response to produce the final product. The method produces grid-level output with spatially and temporally coherent variability. Output fields include random components, so the system may be run as many times as necessary to produce large ensembles of fields for uncertainty studies and similar uses. We describe the method, show example outputs, and present statistical verification that it reproduces the ESM properties it is intended to capture. This method, available as an open-source R package, should have utility in the study of climate uncertainty and variability, extreme events, and climate change mitigation.

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Robert Link et al.
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Robert Link et al.
Data sets

Data and analysis for "Computationally Efficient Emulators for Earth System Models" R. Link https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1183641

Model code and software

The fldgen R package v. 1.0.0 R. Link https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1183347

Robert Link et al.
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Latest update: 15 Jul 2018
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Short summary
Earth System Models (ESMs) produce the highest quality future climate data available, but they are costly to run, so only a few runs from each model are publicly available. What is needed are emulators that tell us what would have happened, if we had been able to perform as many ESM runs as we might have liked. Much of the existing work on emulators has focused on deterministic projections of average values. In this paper we present a way to imbue emulators with the variability seen in ESM runs.
Earth System Models (ESMs) produce the highest quality future climate data available, but they...
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