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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-164
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-164
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: development and technical paper 23 Aug 2019

Submitted as: development and technical paper | 23 Aug 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Simulation of Extreme Heatwaves with Empirical Importance Sampling

Pascal Yiou1 and Aglaé Jézéquel2 Pascal Yiou and Aglaé Jézéquel
  • 1Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l’Environnement, UMR 8212 CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, IPSL and U Paris Saclay, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette cedex, France
  • 2Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, UMR CNRS-ENS-UPMC-X, IPSL and U Paris-Sorbonne, 75005 Paris, France

Abstract. Simulating ensembles of extreme events is a necessary task to evaluate their probability distribution and analyse their meteorological properties. Algorithms of importance sampling have provided a way to simulate trajectories of dynamical systems (like climate models) that yield extreme behavior, like heatwaves. Such algorithms also give access to the return periods of such events. We present an adaptation based on circulation analogues of importance sampling to provide a data-based algorithm that simulates extreme events like heatwaves in a realistic way. This algorithm is a modification of a stochastic weather generator, which gives more weight to trajectories with higher temperatures. This presentation outlines the methodology on European heatwaves and illustrates the spatial and temporal properties of simulations.

Pascal Yiou and Aglaé Jézéquel
Interactive discussion
Status: open (until 18 Oct 2019)
Status: open (until 18 Oct 2019)
AC: Author comment | RC: Referee comment | SC: Short comment | EC: Editor comment
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Pascal Yiou and Aglaé Jézéquel
Data sets

Sample input datasets P. Yiou https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3358023

Model code and software

Simulation and statistical diagnostics codes P. Yiou https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3358023

Pascal Yiou and Aglaé Jézéquel
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Latest update: 21 Sep 2019
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Short summary
This paper presents an adaptation of a method of importance sampling to simulate large ensembles of extreme heatwaves (i.e. the most extreme heatwaves that could be), given a fixed returned period. We illustrate how this algorithm works for European heatwaves and investigate the atmospheric features of such ensembles of events. We argue that such an algorithm can be used to simulate other types of events, including cold spells or prolonged episodes of precipitation.
This paper presents an adaptation of a method of importance sampling to simulate large ensembles...
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