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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-303
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2019-303
© Author(s) 2019. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: model evaluation paper 30 Oct 2019

Submitted as: model evaluation paper | 30 Oct 2019

Review status
This discussion paper is a preprint. It is a manuscript under review for the journal Geoscientific Model Development (GMD).

Forecasting of regional methane from coal mine emissions in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin using the on-line nested global regional chemistry climate model MECO(n)(MESSy v2.53)

Anna-Leah Nickl1, Mariano Mertens1, Anke Roiger1, Andreas Fix1, Axel Amediek1, Alina Fiehn1, Christoph Gerbig2, Michal Galkowski2,3, Astrid Kerkweg4,a, Theresa Klausner1, Maximilian Eckl1, and Patrick Jöckel1 Anna-Leah Nickl et al.
  • 1Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt, Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • 2Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena, Germany
  • 3AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow, Poland
  • 4Institute of Geosciences and Meteorology, University of Bonn, Germany
  • anow at: Research Center Juelich, Institute of Energy and Climate, Juelich, Germany

Abstract. Methane is the second most important greenhouse gas in terms of anthropogenic radiative forcing. Since pre-industrial times, the globally averaged dry mole fraction of methane in the atmosphere has increased considerably. Emissions from coal mining are one of the primary anthropogenic methane sources. However, our knowledge about different sources and sinks of methane is still subject to great uncertainties. Comprehensive measuring campaigns, as well as reliable chemistry climate models, are required to fully understand the global methane budget and to further develop future climate mitigation strategies. The CoMet 1.0 campaign (May to June 2018) combined airborne in-situ, as well as passive and active remote sensing measurements to quantify the emissions from coal mining in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin (USCB, Poland). Roughly 502 kt of methane are emitted from the ventilation shafts per year. In order to help the campaigns flight planning, we performed 6-day forecasts using the on-line coupled, three times nested global and regional chemistry climate model MECO(n). We applied three nested COSMO/MESSy instances going down to a spatial resolution of 2.8 km over the USCB. The nested global/regional model system allows for the separation of local emission contributions from fluctuations in the background methane. Here we introduce the forecast setup and assess the model skill by comparing different observations with the individual forecast simulations. Results show that MECO(3) is able to simulate the observed methane plumes and the large scale patterns (including vertically integrated values) reasonably well. Furthermore we receive reasonable forecast results up to forecast day four.

Anna-Leah Nickl et al.
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Latest update: 18 Nov 2019
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Short summary
Based on the global/regional chemistry-climate model system MECO(n), we implemented a forecast system for supporting the planning of measurement campaign research flights with chemical weather forecasts. We applied this system for the first time to provide 6-day forecasts in support of the CoMet 1.0 campaign targeting on methane emitted from coal mining ventilation shafts in the Upper Silesian Coal Basin in Poland. We describe the new forecast system and evaluate its forecast skill.
Based on the global/regional chemistry-climate model system MECO(n), we implemented a forecast...
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