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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Preprints
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-46
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-46
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: model description paper 18 May 2020

Submitted as: model description paper | 18 May 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) v1.2: Description and Case Study

Zachary L. Flamig1,2, Humberto Vergara1,2, and Jonathan J. Gourley2 Zachary L. Flamig et al.
  • 1Cooperative Institute for Mesoscale Meteorological Studies, University of Oklahoma, 120 David L Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, 73072, USA
  • 2National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Severe Storms Laboratory, 120 David L Boren Blvd, Norman, OK, 73072, USA

Abstract. The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) was developed specifically for improving hydrologic predictions to aid in the issuance of flash flood warnings by the U.S. National Weather Service. EF5 features multiple water balance models and two routing schemes which can be used to generate ensemble forecasts of streamflow, streamflow normalized by upstream basin area (i.e., unit streamflow), and soil saturation. EF5 is designed to utilize high resolution precipitation forcing datasets now available in near real time. A study on flash flood scale basins was conducted over the conterminous United States using gauged basins with catchment areas less than 1,000 km2. The results of the study show that the three uncalibrated water balance models linked to kinematic wave routing are skillful in streamflow prediction.

Zachary L. Flamig et al.

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Zachary L. Flamig et al.

Data sets

Mosaic Precipitation Reanalysis J. Zhang and J. Gourley https://doi.org/10.25638/EDC.PRECIP.0001

Model code and software

Ensemble Framework for Flash Flood Forecasting Z. Flamig, H. Vergara, R. Clark, J. J. Gourley, and Y. Hong https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.1199174

Zachary L. Flamig et al.

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Short summary
The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) is used in the U.S. National Weather Service for operational monitoring and short-term forecasting of flash floods. This article describes the hydrologic models supported by the framework and evaluates their accuracy by comparing simulations of streamflow from 2001–2011 at 4,366 observation sites with catchments less than 1000 square km. Overall, the uncalibrated models reasonably simulate flash flooding events.
The Ensemble Framework For Flash Flood Forecasting (EF5) is used in the U.S. National Weather...
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