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Geoscientific Model Development An interactive open-access journal of the European Geosciences Union
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Discussion papers
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-60
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.
https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-2020-60
© Author(s) 2020. This work is distributed under
the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 License.

Submitted as: methods for assessment of models 18 Mar 2020

Submitted as: methods for assessment of models | 18 Mar 2020

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This preprint is currently under review for the journal GMD.

Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool) v2.0 – diagnostics for emergent constraints and future projections from Earth system models in CMIP

Axel Lauer1, Veronika Eyring1,2, Omar Bellprat3, Lisa Bock1, Bettina K. Gier2,1, Alasdair Hunter5, Ruth Lorenz4, Núria Pérez-Zanón5, Mattia Righi1, Manuel Schlund1, Daniel Senftleben1, Katja Weigel2,1, and Sabrina Zechlau1 Axel Lauer et al.
  • 1Deutsches Zentrum für Luft-und Raumfahrt (DLR), Institut für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany
  • 2University of Bremen, Institute of Environmental Physics (IUP), Bremen, Germany
  • 3Swiss Federal Department of Foreign Affairs, Bern, Switzerland
  • 4ETH Zurich, Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 5Barcelona Supercomputing Center(BSC), Barcelona, Spain

Abstract. The Earth System Model Evaluation Tool (ESMValTool), a community diagnostics and performance metrics tool for evaluation and analysis of Earth system models (ESMs) is designed to facilitate a more comprehensive and rapid comparison of single or multiple models participating in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP). The ESM results can be compared against observations or reanalysis data as well as against other models including predecessor versions of the same model. The updated and extended version 2.0 of the ESMValTool includes several new analysis scripts such as large-scale diagnostics for evaluation of ESMs as well as diagnostics for extreme events, regional model and impact evaluation. In this paper, the newly implemented climate metrics such as effective climate sensitivity (ECS) and transient climate response (TCR) as well as emergent constraints for various climate-relevant feedbacks and diagnostics for future projections from ESMs are described and illustrated with examples using results from the well-established model ensemble CMIP5. The emergent constraints implemented include ECS, snow-albedo effect, climate-carbon cycle feedback, hydrologic cycle intensification, future Indian summer monsoon precipitation, and year of disappearance of summer Arctic sea ice. The diagnostics included in ESMValTool v2.0 to analyze future climate projections from ESMs include analysis scripts to reproduce selected figures of chapter 12 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Fifth Assessment report (AR5) and various multi-model statistics.

Axel Lauer et al.

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Status: open (until 14 May 2020)
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Axel Lauer et al.

Model code and software

ESMValTool K. Adeniyi, B. Andela, E. Arnone, O. Bellprat, P. Berg, L. Bock, B. Broetz, L.-P. Caron, N. Carvalhais, I. Cionni, N. Cortesi, S. Corti, B. Crezee, E. L. Davin, P. Davini, C. Deser, F. Diblen, D. Docquier, L. Dreyer, C. Ehbrecht, N. Drost, P. Earnshaw, V. Eyring, B. Gier, N. Gonzalez-Reviriego, P. Goodman, S. Hagemann, J. von Hardenberg, B. Hassler, A. Hunter, C. Kadow, S. Kindermann, S. Koirala, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, L. Lledó, Q. Lejeune, V. Lembo, L. Bill; S. Loosveldt-Tomas, R. Lorenz, T. Lovato, V. Lucarini, F. Massonnet, C. W. Mohr, B. Mueller, L. de Mora, P. Amarjiit, N. Pérez-Zanón, A. Phillips, V. Predoi, M. Righi, J. Russell, M. Sandstad, M. Schlund, A. Sellar, D. Senftleben, F. Serva, J. Sillmann, T. Stacke, R. Swaminathan, V. Torralba, J. Vegas-Regidor, K. Weigel, and K. Zimmermann, Klaus https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3401363

ESMValCore B. Andela, L. Bock, B. Broetz, F. Diblen, L. Dreyer, N. Drost, P. Earnshaw, V. Eyring, B. Hassler, N. Koldunov, A. Lauer, B. Little, S. Loosveldt-Tomas, L. de Mora, V. Predoi, M. Righi, M. Schlund, J. Vegas-Regidor, and K. Zimmermann https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3387139

Axel Lauer et al.

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